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H5N1/Vogelgrippe seit 1997: Der Ever­green unter den Methoden, Panik zu ver­breiten [Neues von der WHO]

Was denken Sie, seit wann H5N1 als “Gefahr”, auf­grund einer poten­ti­ellen Pan­demie, für Men­schen weltweit auf­gebaut wird?

Nun, auf­ge­taucht ist das Virus 1997 in Hong Kong.

Der übliche Mas­senmord an Vögeln soll der ver­meint­lichen Gefahr für Men­schen ein Ende bereitet haben. Indes, das Potential von H5N1, als Methode, Men­schen Angst zu machen, wurde schnell erkannt, denn im Mai 1997 erkrankten 18 Per­sonen in Hong Kong an H5N1 und 6 davon sind ver­storben. Daraus, aus 18 Infek­tionen und sechs Toten hat nicht zuletzt die EU geschlossen, dass “an influenza pan­demic could be imminent“, weshalb Regie­rungen der Mit­glieds­staaten der EU mit vor­beu­genden Maß­nahmen reagiert haben. Indes, den vor­beu­genden Maß­nahmen ging ein Treffen, einer so gen­n­anten ad-hoc-Gruppe zu über­trag­baren Krank­heiten am 14. Januar 1998 voraus, initiiert vom DGV, der Direction General 5 der Euro­päi­schen Kommission.

Schon Anfang 1998 wurde die Sorge, viel­leicht auch Hoffnung, immerhin lässt sich mit H5N1 viel Geld ver­dienen, die Sorge dass H5N1 zur Pan­demie werden könnte, aus­giebig aus­ge­breitet und die Teil­nehmer der ad-hoc-Gruppe haben zu ihrem Schrecken fest­ge­stellt, dass es keine Impf­stoffe gegen das gerade erst gefundene Virus H5N1 gibt. Wie gewöhnlich, so hat auch diese Fest­stellung dazu geführt, dass Mil­lionen Euro aus Steu­er­geldern in die Erfor­schung eines Impf­stoffes gegen H5N1 geflossen sind.

Ein lukra­tives Geschäft.
Bester Beleg dafür ist die Anzahl der Impf­stoffe gegen H5N1, an denen derzeit geforscht wird.
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Da ist Geld drin…

Wenn so viele unter­schied­liche Phar­mafia-Unter­nehmen an ein und dem­selben “Impf­stoff” basteln, gegen ein Virus das sich nach wie vor standhaft weigert, von Mensch zu Mensch über­tragbar in rele­vantem Ausmaß zu sein, dann muss man kein Prophet sein, um zu wissen, dass die hier ver­sam­melten finan­zi­ellen Inter­essen einen Weg finden werden, ihre For­schung zu Mil­li­arden zu machen.

Indes, wie gesagt, es gibt da ein Problem.
Seit 1998 wird die Gefahr von H5N1/Vogelgrippe als Material, aus dem töd­liche Pan­demien sind, stetig beschworen, indes, H5N1 weigert sich standhaft.

Hier ein paar Bei­spiele der aka­de­mi­schen Panikmachen:

2004:
Guan, Y., L. L. M. Poon, C. Y. Cheung, T. M. Ellis, W. Lim, A. S. Lipatov, K. H. Chan et al. (2004). H5N1 influenza: a protean pan­demic threat. Pro­cee­dings of the National Academy of Sci­ences 101(21): 8156–8161.

Ergebnis: H5N1 wird anste­ckender und zu einer zuneh­menden Gefahr für Menschen
Anbindung der Autoren: Government Virus Unit, Department of Health, Peoples Republic of China;

Fer­guson, Neil M., Chris­tophe Fraser, Christl A. Don­nelly, Azra C. Ghani, and Roy M. Anderson. (2004). Public health risk from the avian H5N1 influenza epi­demic. Science 304(5673): 968–969.

Ergebnis: Die Leute um Neil Fer­guson, der Neil Fer­guson, der mit fal­schen Modellen 2020 ein Mas­sen­sterben an COVID-19 vor­her­gesagt hat, emp­fehlen in diesem Beitrag der WHO, die Gefahr, die von H5N1 ausgeht, nicht auf­grund der Fälle tat­sächlich infi­zierter Men­schen, sondern auf­grund der ver­bes­serten Fähigkeit des Virus zur Trans­mission zu beur­teilen. Also nicht auf­grund von Fakten, sondern auf­grund der Ergeb­nisse eines Simu­la­ti­ons­mo­dells. Kommt irgendwie bekannt vor…
Anbidung der Autoren: Imperial College, London;

Achtung For­schung:

Webster, Robert G., Malik Peiris, Honglin Chen, and Yi Guan (2006). H5N1 out­breaks and enzootic influenza.Bio­di­versity 7(1): 51–55.

Ergebnis: “In fact, the root cause of the con­ti­nuing H5N1 pan­demic threat may be the way the patho­ge­nicity of H5N1 viruses is masked by cocir­cu­lating influenza viruses or bad agri­cul­tural vaccines.”

Dass H5N1 unter Geflügel regel­mäßig auf­tritt, ist nach Ansicht der Autoren u.a. ein Hinweis auf schlechte Impf­stoffe, die in der Tier­haltung zum Einsatz kommen. Ein bekanntes Thema …

Anbindung: St Jude Childrens Hos­pital Fort Lau­derdale und Uni­versity of Hong Kong

2007:

Peiris, JS Malik, Menno D. De Jong, and Yi Guan (2007). Avian influenza virus (H5N1): a threat to human health. Cli­nical micro­biology reviews 20(2): 243–267.

Ergebnis: Natürlich ist H5N1 eine Gefahr für Menschen.
Anbindung der Autoren: Uni­versity of Hong Kong, Oxford University

2011:

Amendola, A., A. Rang­hiero, A. Zanetti, and E. Pariani (2011). “Is avian influenza virus A (H5N1) a real threat to human health. Journal of Pre­ventive Medicine and Hygiene 52(3): 107–110.

Ergebnis: Derzeit ist H5N1 keine Gefahr, aber wenn es H5N1 geling, von Mensch zu Mensch über­tragbar zu sein, dann schon.
Anbindung der Autoren: Uni­versity of Milan

2012:

To, Kelvin KW, Kenneth HL Ng, Tak-Lun Que, Jacky MC Chan, Kay-Yan Tsang, Alan KL Tsang, Honglin Chen, and Kwok-Yung Yuen (2012). “Avian influenza A H5N1 virus: a con­ti­nuous threat to humans. Emerging microbes & infec­tions 1(1): 1–12.

Ergebnis: Das Virus ent­wi­ckelt sich schnell (ist ja auch ein RNA-Virus) und stellt ein kon­ti­nu­ier­liches Risiko für eine Pan­demie für Men­schen dar.
Anbindung der Autoren: Princess Mar­garet Hos­pital, Hong Kong, Uni­versity of Hong Kong

2013

Van Kerkhove, Maria D. (2013). Brief lite­rature review for the WHO global influenza research agenda–highly patho­genic avian influenza H5N1 risk in humans. Influenza and other respi­ratory viruses 7: 26–33.

Ergebnis: Anste­ckung nur bei extrem hoher Virenlast für Men­schen möglich, keine Indizien für Mensch-zu-Mensch Über­trag­barkeit des Virus, aber natürlich ganz große Gefahr…

Anbindung: Imperial College, London

Beenden wir den Über­blick an dieser Stelle, schon weil nach 2013 so gut wie keine Bei­träge mehr zu finden sind, die sich mit dem Risiko einer Mensch-zu-Mensch-Über­tragung von H5N1 befassen. Warum dem so ist, dazu mag die fol­gende Tabelle einen Erklä­rungs­beitrag leisten:

WHO

Abge­sehen von einem kurzen Aus­bruch in Ägypten spielt H5N1 im viralen Geschehen der Welt nach 2014 keine Rolle mehr und die Tat­sache, dass For­schung den Ver­dacht nahe­gelegt hat, der Mas­sen­einsatz von Impf­stoffen gegen H5N1 in der Tier­haltung trage seinen Teil dazu bei, H5N1 virulent und ende­misch zu halten, mag auch als Dämpfer für all die­je­nigen gewirkt haben, die mit ihren For­schungs­er­geb­nissen lieber nicht Gefahr laufen, ihre Finan­zierung durch die Phar­mafia zu verlieren.

Ergo wurde es ruhig um H5N1, so ruhig, dass sich die WHO-Mannen heute redlich mühen müssen, die Angst vor H5N1 künstlich zu schüren und wieder ans Laufen zu bringen:

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Dr Tedros und Jeremy Farrar, gestern noch aktiv an der Ver­tu­schung der Her­kunft von SARS-CoV‑2 beteiligt, heute der Chief Medical Adviser bei der WHO, ver­mutlich zur Belohnung, mühen sich redlich, die in Daten nicht belegbare Gefahr, die von H5N1 ausgeht, zu beschwörden und die Geld­ma­schine für Phar­mafia-Unter­nehmen am Laufen zu halten. Die Stra­tegie hat sich in all den Jahren, die H5N1 nun schon beschworen wird, nie geändert.

H5N1 sei derzeit nicht von Mensch-zu-Mensch zu über­tragen, so, Farrar, aber dennoch gefährlich, weil die Gefahr bestehe, dass es in Zukunft von Mensch-zu-Mensch über­tragbar sein könnte. Eine Aussage, die auf nahezu jedes Virus zutrifft. Indes, H5N1 wurde in den letzten Jahren so pro­minent auf­gebaut und wohl mit Hilfe von “Impf­stoffen” virulent unter Tieren gehalten (Webster et al. 2006), dass es derzeit keine Angst-Alter­native zu H5N1 gibt. Also müssen die Angst-Agi­ta­toren mit dem arbeiten, was sie haben. Herzlich wenig, wenn man die Tabelle mit den kumu­la­tiven Fällen von H5N1 unter Men­schen betrachtet.

Deshalb wird derzeit gemolken, was geht, und Farrar gibt sich im letzten Video alle Mühe, das, was er nicht weiß, nicht etwa als Unwissen, sondern als Gefahr aus­zu­geben, was, ange­sichts der Gefahr, dass uns der Himmel auf den Kopf fallen könnte, auf besonders ängst­liche Naturen seine Wirkung nicht ver­fehlen dürfte. Er hat keine Ahnung, wie die Über­tragung von Kühen zu Men­schen, Tieren statt­findet, ob sie statt­findet, aber natürlich ist sie eine große Gefahr, was ange­sichts der Tat­sache, dass Farrar kei­nerlei Daten hat, um die Gefahr zu quan­ti­fi­zieren, seltsam ist. Wenn man nichts weiß, wie kann man dann wissen, dass von dem, von dem man nichts weiß, eine große Gefahr ausgeht?

Wie auch immer.
Das ganze der­zeitige Tohu­wabohu basiert auf H5N1 unter Rindern und einem Farm­ar­beiter, der an H5N1 erkrankt ist. Indes, betrachtet man dessen “Krank­heits­ge­schichte” etwas genauer, dann reibt man sich ver­wundert die Augen:

Ende März 2024 klagte ein Farm­ar­beiter über Rötung und Unwohlsein am rechten Auge. Fest­ge­stellt wurde eine sub­kon­junk­tivale Blutung und eine dünne, seröse Drainage. Ansonsten nichts. Normale Atmung, klare Lunge, kein Fieber, keine respi­ra­to­ri­schen Sym­ptome, nichts. Der Farm­ar­beiter hatte kei­nerlei Kontakt zu toten oder kranken Vögeln, aber mit gesunden und kranken Milch­kühen, die eben­falls gerötete Augen hatten, weniger Milch gaben, weniger Appetit auf­wiesen und zuweilen eine erhöhte Tem­pe­ratur hatten. Er trage Hand­schuhe, aber keinen Atem- oder Augen­schutz bei der Arbeit mit Kühen. Ein PCR-Test war positiv für H5-Viren, die Sym­ptome des Arbeiters ver­schwanden nach einer Behandlung mit Osel­ta­mivir. Eine Analyse der Gen­se­quenz des H5N1-Virus, das bei Arbeiter und Kühen fest­ge­stellt wurde, zeigte kei­nerlei Fähigkeit, an mensch­liche Zellen anzubinden:

“Viral sequences from cattle and from the worker main­tained pri­marily avian genetic cha­rac­te­ristics and lacked changes in the hem­ag­glu­tinin gene that would affect receptor-binding spe­ci­ficity (e.g., binding to α2–6–linked sialic acid receptors, pri­marily located in the human upper respi­ratory tract) and trans­mission risk to humans.”

Uyeki, Timothy M., Scott Milton, Che­rissa Abdul Hamid, Cynthia Reinoso Webb, Steven M. Presley, Varun Shetty, Susan N. Rollo et al. (2024). Highly Patho­genic Avian Influenza A (H5N1) Virus Infection in a Dairy Farm Worker. New England Journal of Medicine.

Kurz: Wir sind immer noch da, wo wir 1997 waren, als H5N1 ent­deckt wurde.

Kei­nerlei Hinweis darauf, dass H5N1 die Fähigkeit erlangen könnte, von Mensch-zu-Mensch über­tragbar zu sein. Indes, es ist natürlich schon seit Jahren von Mensch zu Mensch über­tragbar. Beim ersten Aus­bruch von H5N1 in Hong Kong reiste die Mutter einer Infi­zierten an, um die Kranke zu pflegen. Sie infi­zierte sich mit H5N1 und ver­starb. Indes legen Studien nahe, dass die Viren­ladung, die benötigt wird, um H5N1 von Mensch zu Mensch zu über­tragen, so groß ist, dass man stun­denlang dem Virus aus­ge­setzt sein muss, um über­haupt eine Wahr­schein­lichkeit auf Anste­ckung und Erkrankung zu haben (van Kerkhove 2014).

Aber selbst dann, wenn man die Daten, die oben in der WHO-Tabelle abge­bildet sind, zur Grundlage nimmt, um die Über­trag­barkeit von H5N1 sta­tis­tisch zu quan­ti­fi­zieren, erzielt man Ergeb­nisse, die die Gefahr, die mit dem Virus ver­bunden sein soll, etwas rela­ti­vieren. So finden Yang-Yang et al. (2007) kei­nerlei sta­tis­tische Belege dafür, dass ein Aus­bruch in der Türkei durch Über­tragung von Mensch-zu-Mensch ver­ur­sacht wurde und die sta­tis­ti­schen Belege, die sie für einen Aus­bruch in Sumatra gefunden zu haben glauben, sind Junk, denn sie ver­letzten die Parität mit einem Wer­te­be­reich von 0,61 bis 2,14:

“We find sta­tis­tical evi­dence of human-to-human trans­mission (p = 0.009) in Sumatra but not in Turkey (p = 0.114). For Sumatra, the esti­mated household SAR was 29% (95% con­fi­dence interval [CI] 15%–51%). The esti­mated lower limit on the local R0 was 1.14 (95% CI 0.61–2.14).”

Yang, Yang, M. Elizabeth Halloran, Jonathan D. Sug­imoto, and Ira M. Longini Jr. (2007). Detecting human-to-human trans­mission of avian influenza A (H5N1). Emerging infec­tious diseases 13(9): 1348.

Es gibt kei­nerlei Anhalts­punkt dafür, dass von H5N1 derzeit und in abseh­barer Zeit eine Gefahr für Men­schen ausgeht oder aus­gehen wird. Alles, was dazu in den Medien berichtet und von inter­es­sierten Kreisen ver­breitet wird, dient der Panik­mache, der Vor­be­reitung einer men­schen­ge­machten Pan­demie, die als zoo­no­tische H5N1-Pan­demie aus­ge­geben werden wird oder dem Zweck, die Legi­ti­mation dafür zu schaffen, Mil­li­arden Steu­er­gelder in den Koffern von Phar­mafia-Unter­nehmen zu vergraben.

Der Artikel erschien zuerst bei ScienceFiles.org.