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Es geht erst los: SocGen-Ana­lysten erwarten Ein­bruch von 50 Prozent an den Märkten

Ich habe Andrew Lapt­horne von der Societe Generale vor einigen Jahren am Rande einer Kon­ferenz ken­nen­ge­lernt und halte ihn für einen bril­lanten Ana­lysten. Wenig ver­wun­derlich, dass er mit Albert Edwards zusam­men­ar­beitet und min­destens genauso skep­tisch ist. Leider bin ich nicht auf deren E‑Mail-Ver­teiler und muss mich deshalb auf Zweit­quellen wie Zero Hedge ver­lassen. So auch heute, wo ich kurz die ent­schei­dende Aussage von Andrew Lapt­horne bringe: An den Börsen dürfte es noch so richtig nach unten gehen:

  • „The SocGen stra­tegist then lays out some facts about market per­for­mance last year, noting that overall the MSCI World finished the year down 10.4% with a negative total return of 8.2%, beginning its slide almost at the beginning of the year, with Emerging Markets fell 16.6% with a total return of ‑14.2%, with most equity markets losing similar amounts. The exception, according to Lapt­horne was the US, „which ended the year in dra­matic fashion“, with the S&P 500 having its worst December (-9.2%) since its inception in 1957 despite a massive 5% daily surge on the 26th December.“
    Stelter: Das unter­streicht, wie groß die Pro­bleme an den Märkten sind!
  • „(…) outside the US it was mostly a very ugly year, with double-digit losses were common and several indices including Germany and Japan are in bear market ter­ritory (the two out­liers were, curiously, the UAE and Saudi Arabia).“
    Stelter: Warum aus­ge­rechnet diese Märkte gestiegen sind, ver­schließt sich mir auch.

Quelle: Zero Hedge

  • „Taking an even bigger step back, and looking at an interval of two decades, Lapt­horne writes that some index returns are „down­right embar­rassing:“MSCI Eurozone for example first passed its current price level in July 1998! For many equity investors com­pounding divi­dends has been their only return over the last 10 and 20 years!“
    Stelter: Ich bin auch ein Freund der lang­fris­tigen Kapi­tal­anlage in Aktien, aber das gibt schon zu denken.
  • „Which brings us to the core question of Lapthorne’s note today: where does the market stand today, to which he has an ominous response: despite all the des­pairing head­lines and dis­ap­pointing returns seen last year, it looks like we are only at the beginning of the sell-off. And just to make sure SocGen clients are even more depressed, Lapt­horne reminds us that while the investing public is fixated on prices being down 20% or more, during a proper bear market it is common to see one third of stocks lose 50% or more.
    Stelter: Was natur­gemäß starker Tobak ist.
  • „Finally, the SocGen stra­tegist shows the chart below which reveals the inte­resting obser­vation that while the US equity market has done well on a headline basis, the number of stocks down 50% or more in the S&P 500 is on a par with MSCI Europe at 9% and when we go lower down the market cap scale into the S&P 1500, 18% are down 50% or more from their three year highs.
    – Stelter: Das Chart zeigt aber auch, dass es noch deutlich bergab gehen kann, weil in frü­heren Baissen die Hälfte der Aktien 50 Prozent oder mehr verloren.

Quelle: Zero Hedge
Wichtige Vor­aus­setzung für einen Ein­bruch an der Börse ist auch eine ent­spre­chende kon­junk­tu­relle Ent­wicklung. Hier kommt der berühmte Kollege von Lapt­horne ins Spiel: der Per­ma­nenten-Bär Albert Edwards. Dieser erinnert daran, dass die Notenbank Fed immer zu spät auf die Rezession (die sie mit ihrer Liqui­di­täts­ver­knappung mit aus­gelöst hat) reagiert:

  • „SocGen’s Albert Edwards (…) warns that the Fed is now too late to save the economy, to wit: the Fed eases imme­diately prior to a recession, which is also why the stee­pening yield curve we are expe­ri­encing now is a far more ominous reversal to the recent flat­tening trend than if the curve had merely con­tinued to flatten.“
    Stelter: Das ist der Punkt, wonach die Fed eben zu spät dran ist. Muss sie viel­leicht auch.
  • „(…) last Friday’s abject capi­tu­lation from Fed Chair Powell was sur­prising, and while the SocGen stra­tegist agrees that there was a level of equity market weakness that was always going to generate a re-intro­duction of the fabled Fed put, Edwards says that he thought it would take a lot more than a 20% decline in equity markets for Powell to re-embrace the Fed put like a long-lost friend, espe­cially after Powell’s post FOMC rei­te­ration that QT was on auto­pilot. As a result, the sub­se­quent col­lapse of expec­ta­tions of Fed tigh­tening has resulted in a far steeper yield curve.“
    Stelter: Was ja eigentlich gegen eine Rezession spricht, wurde doch immer in der flachen Kurve/der Umkehrung das Risiko gesehen.
  • „(…) why the SocGen per­mabear is con­vinced an imminent recession is coming: this curve stee­pening, after a period of pro­no­unced flat­tening, is a good indi­cation of imminent recession despite con­tinued strength in the labour market.
    Stelter: Da muss ich gestehen, dass mich das nicht über­zeugt. Ich sehe zwar auch eine Rezes­si­ons­gefahr, doch so klar posi­tio­nieren wie Edwards würde ich mich da nicht.

Quelle: Zero Hedge

  • „(…) according to his­to­rical pre­ce­dents, the market has decided the Fed tigh­tening cycle is over, and his­to­ri­cally the market has been pretty accurate in its pre­dic­tions. Da muss ich gestehen, dass mich das nicht über­zeugt. Ich sehe zwar auch eine Rezes­si­ons­gefahr, doch so klar posi­tio­nieren wie Edwards würde ich mich da nicht. Hence Edwards‘ relaxed attitude about further yield increases was vin­di­cated when the US 10y bond yield recently broke above the upper bound of the downward channel.“
    Stelter: Damit wurden die Zinsen erneut zu einer Belastung für die immer höher gele­ver­agete Wirtschaft.

Quelle: Zero Hedge

  • „(…) Edwards notes that SocGen’s head of Tech­nical Ana­lysis, Ste­phanie Aymes believes that the current rebound in the S&P and the 10y bond yield is merely a dead cat bounce and investors should prepare them­selves for the next leg down.
    Stelter: Auf jeden Fall spricht vieles dafür, zunächst einmal vor­sichtig zu sein.
  • „Edwards (…) asks (…) : If we are indeed nearing the point where the Fed stops tigh­tening (both QT and Fed Funds), should this offer investors con­fi­dence that an equity bear market can be avoided? and explains that this is not the case because pay­rolls often acce­lerate just ahead of a recession (…) Pay­rolls, a lagging indi­cator, offer no help in pre­dicting reces­sions.“
    Stelter: Das wie­derum ist bekannt. Der Arbeits­markt läuft immer hinterher.

Quelle: Zero Hedge

  • „(…) while a bounce from deeply oversold levels was expected „until the neckline of the recent ‘head and shoulders’ for­mation“ which in turn would take the S&P up to around 2600, it is this level „which could prove insur­moun­table resis­tance.“ He then claims that after that, there are two other massive hurdles to clear: first is the 50% retra­cement level of the fall from the 2935 peak, which will take us back to 2650, and second, the 200 day moving average of 2740 could also prove heavy resis­tance.“
    Stelter: Nun mag man das glauben oder nicht, viele Markt­teil­nehmer glauben daran, was dafür­spricht, es doch ernst zu nehmen.

Quelle: Zero Hedge

  • Many investors have a big downer on tech­nical ana­lysis. As a fun­da­mental analyst, many of my readers become apo­plectic with rage (or just plain dis­ap­pointed) when they see I have put a tech­nical chart in my weeklies. (…) But let me repeat: I believe that if an equity bear market is unfolding, it will be the tech­nical ana­lysts and not the macro-ana­lysts that will inform us, and a col­lapse in the markets will precede a recession, just as it did in 2007.“
    Stelter: Und es gibt noch einige mehr, die auf­grund der Bör­sen­for­mation vor einem Ein­bruch, und zwar heftig, an den Märkten warnen.
  • „There remains an ongoing bullish bias which con­tinues to cling to the belief this is just a cor­rection in an ongoing bull market. However, there are ample indi­ca­tions, as stated, that the decade long bull market has come to its ine­vi­table con­clusion.“
    Stelter: Wobei wir uns dann noch am wenigsten um die Börsen Sorgen machen müssen, wenn die Illusion/das Märchen/die Lüge von der bewäl­tigten Krise endet.

→ „“We Are Only At The Beginning“: Why SocGen Expects A 50% Drop“, 2. Januar 2019
→ „The Chart That Con­vinced Albert Edwards A Recession Is „Imminent““, 10. Januar 2019

Dr. Daniel Stelter —