Rezession in Deutschland? Dann ist Schluss!

Es war und ist nur eine Frage der Zeit, bis die Wohl­stands­il­lusion unserer poli­ti­schen Führung der sie stüt­zenden medialen „Öffent­lichkeit“ und der an sie glau­benden Bevöl­kerung zer­platzt. Tut sie es, wird auf einen Schlag deutlich, wie schlecht wir in den letzten Jahren regiert wurden. Ich denke immer noch, die Union könnte das­selbe Schicksal erleiden wie die Demo­cratia Cris­tiana in Italien.
Ist es nun so weit? Die Anzeichen für eine Rezession bei uns nehmen zu:
  • „The eco­nomic outlook in Germany is dete­rio­rating with alarming speed and any mistake by policy-makers could push the country into a full-blown slump, a leading eco­nomic institute has warned. (…) The Macroe­co­nomic Policy Institute (IMK) early warning indi­cator said the recession risk over the next three months has jumped sud­denly to 32.4pc as trade ten­sions mount and liquidity ebbsaway in the inter­na­tional financial system.“
    Stelter: Schluss mit dem Märchen vom “reichen Land”.

Quelle: The Telegraph

  • „It may be a false alarm but it clearly indi­cates that global growth is weaker than widely assumed just weeks ago. (…) Germany is heavily reliant on world trade and is the­r­efore a bell­wether for the broader health of the global economy. Its indus­trial sector lurched abruptly from boom to bust early in the last downturn and proved to be a leading indi­cator for the Great Recession.“
    – Stelter: Klar, niemand ist wie wir abhängig von der Zusatz­ver­schuldung in der Welt.
  • „Germany is the chief sup­plier of machine tools and engi­neering equipment to China. The wea­k­ening data dove­tails with signs that the Chinese economy has come off the boil since the Com­munist Party con­clave last November. The delayed effect of credit curbs are biting. (…) Proxy mea­sures put tog­ether by Capital Eco­nomics suggest that the true rate of eco­nomic growth in China has dropped to near 4.5pc, a growth recession in Chinese terms and a far cry from the smoothed official figure of 6.6pc.“
    – Stelter: Eine Illusion, die wir auf Exporten auf­gebaut haben, findet ihr Ende.
  • „The Fed is on the warpath. (…) the global money is slowing as quan­ti­tative easing goes into reverse, and as the Fed lifts global bor­rowing costs. Three-month Libor rates have jumped 60 basis points this year, hitting $9 trillion of floating con­tracts worldwide.“
    – Stelter: Das hatten wir schon, ist aber relevant.
  • „(…) the global eco­nomic slowdown was baked into the pie months ago when the money supply began to falter. (…) six-month real M1 money touched a nine-year low of 1pc in February. (…) This signal tends to lead the economy by around six months, sug­gesting that the global economy may remain trapped in the dol­drums through the second and third quarters.“
    – Stelter: Auch ent­scheidend sind Ver­än­derung und Grenznutzen!
  • „It is clear that the eurozone boom in 2017 has fizzled out. There has been a blizzard of dis­ap­pointing figures on indus­trial output, retail sales, and business con­fi­dence over recent weeks.“
    – Stelter: Und damit fällt das Kar­tenhaus der Poli­tiker in sich zusammen!
  • „The European Central Bank faces a tre­acherous task as it pre­pares to phase out QE altog­ether this year (…) Nobody knows for sure how much damage is being caused by this reduction in the „flow“ of sti­mulus, since few can agree intellec­tually on how QE actually works. The risk is that the ECB could tighten too hard and cause the current soft patch to metastasize into a full-blown downturn.“
    – Stelter: Da kann ich nur lachen. Ich denke, die EZB wird gar nicht kürzen, aber schon die Tat­sache, dass sie nicht weiter Gas gibt, wird zu Pro­blemen führen.
  • „The Powell Fed no longer pays attention to monetary data and seems not to regard QT as signi­ficant, despite war­nings from former Fed chairman Ben Ber­nanke that it was safer not to try at all. The Fed is the­r­efore almost certain to keep tigh­tening and keep raising rates until the economy breaks. This is the time-honoured cause of recessions.“
    – Stelter: Da bin ich auch nicht so sicher, die Märkte signa­li­sieren ja schon Rezession.
  • „The hedge fund Cross­Bor­der­Ca­pital said its global liquidity index has dropped to a six-year low of 25.3, nearing levels last seen during the onset of the European banking crisis in 2011.“
    – Stelter: was nur beweist, dass man eine Schul­den­krise nicht mit noch mehr Schulden bekämpfen kann.
  • „The odds of a serious market cor­rection remain high. Our models have been warning of sharply dete­rio­rating risks from the second quarter of 2018. The latest tariff ten­sions are not the main issue, because we live in a world domi­nated by capital flows not trade flows. The next bear market may be underway (…).“
    – Stelter: sehr gut möglich! Der Euro überlebt das nicht.