Zum Zustand Italiens

Bekannt, aber oft ver­drängt, die Lage in Italien: Ein Land, das sich wohl nur schwer im Euro halten lassen wird. Zunächst das reale BIP/Kopf:

Quelle: The Telegraph

  • „The (…) imme­diate danger is Italy. The European Com­mission slashed its growth outlook for the country to 0.2pc in 2019 on Thursday, down from 1.2pc in November. (…) The sharp revision of Italy’s figures pushes up the implied budget deficit to well over 2.5pc of GDP. (…) The com­mission forecast is still too high – I think growth will be minus 0.2pc (…).“
    – Stelter: Das hält das Land nicht mehr lange durch.
Kein Wunder, dass die Ita­liener das Land verlassen:
Quelle: The Telegraph 
  • „The risk spread on Italian 10-year bonds jumped 13 basis points to 286 on Thursday, but is still within the trading range seen since
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    May. Global fixed income funds view the enticing return on Italian debt as a wort­hwhile risk at a time when more than $9 trillion of bonds worldwide are trading at negative yields, the highest since early 2017Yet the global defla­tionary force that lies behind this is double-edged for Italy, as they lower the nominal GDP growth and play havoc with the country’s fragile debt dynamics.“
    Stelter: Und letztlich nicht nur im Falle Ita­liens, sondern aller hoch ver­schul­deten Länder.
  • „The Inter­na­tional Monetary Fund warned this week in its Article IV health check that Italy risks a fresh debt crisis that could ‘push global markets into uncharted ter­ritory’. The trigger could be a down­grade to junk status by the rating agencies. The country has to finance or roll over €400bn of debt in 2019. That is twice the entire GDP of Greece. The IMF said banks may have trouble accessing the who­lesale capital markets, forcing them to dele­verage and the­r­efore to starve the economy of credit.“
    Stelter: Deshalb sind private Kapi­tal­geber so zurückhaltend.
  • „In an asto­nishing detail, the report said pro­duc­tivity levels in Italy’s non-tra­dable sector had fallen by 16pc since 1996. It is as if the country is slipping back into an eco­nomic dark age. Per capita income has dropped by 4pc over the last two decades. Almost 160,000 people are leaving the country each year, (…) The work­force is con­tracting at a frigh­tening pace.“
    Stelter: Das Bild zur Pro­duk­ti­vität ist grausam, aber auch bei uns nicht wirklich berauschend.

Quelle: The Telegraph 

  • „This makes it even harder to restore the debt tra­jectory back to a sus­tainable path. Some eco­no­mists say the only way to break out of this perennial trap is for Italy to leave the euro, devalue by 30pc, and res­tructure its debts in an epic jubilee. This would be a trau­matic event for the whole world.“
    Stelter: Und das könnte die größte Finanz­krise der Welt­ge­schichte auslösen.

→ telegraph.co.uk: „Germany falls into ‚recession‘ as Brussels slashes EU growth fore­casts „, 7. Februar 2019

Dr. Daniel Stelter — www.think-beyondtheobvious.com