Deutschland: Kopf aus und Augen zu vor der exis­ten­zi­ellen Krise der Eurozone

Von Wolfgang Münchau habe ich schon länger nichts mehr rezen­siert. Er ist einer der besten Beob­achter der Ent­wicklung in Deutschland und der Eurozone, wobei auch er das Problem hat, dass ihm der Stoff, etwas Neues zu schreiben, ausgeht. Es ist nun mal so, dass die Krise der Eurozone vor sich hin köchelt und es nur eine Frage der Zeit ist, bis es knallt.
Kommt nun die Rezession in Deutschland und damit in Europa, die dem Drama den nächsten Akt beschert?

  • „Over the course of the past week, we learnt two new things about the eurozone. Germany has closed the doors on serious reform. Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron’s meeting in Berlin exposed deep dif­fe­rences about the German and French leaders’ visions of the future.“
    Stelter: wobei ich daran erinnere, dass es eben nur Sym­ptom­dok­toreien sind, die vor allem dazu dienen sollen, die Ver­schul­dungs­ka­pa­zität in der Eurozone zu erhöhen (zu unseren Lasten!).
  • „(…) there has been a sudden decline in the eurozone’s eco­nomic activity. The latter is puz­zling. It could be a fluke, but a number of recent indi­cators have all sur­prised on the downside. German indus­trial pro­duction has been weak since December. But it took a real dive in February, when it fell by 1.6 per cent against January. The European Auto­mobile Manu­fac­turers Asso­ciation reported that car sales were down by 5.3 per cent in March. One of the more reliable gauges is the business cycle indi­cator of IMK, the German eco­nomic institute. It now registers a recession pro­ba­bility of one-third, up from almost zero a month earlier.“
    – Stelter: Dann geht es erst recht bergab hier, weil dann die Kosten der Zuwan­derung richtig spürbar werden.
  • „We know for certain that Germany will not agree to a central eurozone budget to weather macroe­co­nomic shocks. There will be no single safe asset. There will be no common deposit insu­rance. The big project of a European banking union will remain forever uncompleted.“
    – Stelter: Übrigens, die Hol­länder und einige andere wollen das auch nicht!
  • „Then add some­thing really dan­gerous — a recession — into the mix. (…) there are other reasons to suspect that some­thing else might be afoot.The first has been the app­re­ciation of the euro. The daily nominal trade-weighted exchange rate of the euro has increased by almost 7 per cent over the past year. For an economy with an extreme degree of export-depen­dency this is a big move. Most of the change occurred last year, but it would be normal for the eco­nomic impact only to become notable with a delay. Second, the financial crisis may have lowered the eurozone’s potential output per­ma­nently. The reported strong growth rates during 2016 and 2017 could have been a blip — a tem­porary relief after years of austerity. What is now dis­gu­ising itself as a downturn may in time be revealed as a return to a depressed nor­mality.“
    – Stelter: nicht zu ver­gessen die demo­gra­fische Entwicklung!!
  • „Italy has regis­tered almost no pro­duc­tivity growth since becoming a founding member of the eurozone in 1999. Yet, 2017 was a rela­tively good year for the economy. It matters a great deal whether a country with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 132 per cent can manage average real growth rates of less than 1 per cent or 2 per cent. That gap is the dif­fe­rence between sol­vency and insol­vency.“
    – Stelter: Auch bei uns ist die Pro­duk­ti­vität nicht mehr so gestiegen, wie in den Jahren zuvor.
  • „The EU has no instru­ments to cope with an Italian sove­reign debt crisis. Italy is too big to fail and too big to save. The European Sta­bility Mechanism, the rescue umbrella, is too small to cope. I have no doubt that the euro itself will survive in some form or other, but without reforms the risks of a fracture are greatly increased.“
    – Stelter: Ohne die Solvenz Deutsch­lands – die, wie Leser von bto wissen – kei­neswegs so gut ist, wie alle tun, ist der Euro nicht zu halten.
  • „Even Pre­sident Macron’s reform agenda does not fully address this problem. But it would at least open the door to the infra­structure that is needed to do the heavy lifting in a crisis — a single safe asset and a fiscal backstop to the financial sector. The German position has been to reject these ideas from the outset.“
    – Stelter: Ich denke, sie sind wir­kungslos bis schädlich.
  • „After years of fol­lowing the eurozone debate, I have come to the con­clusion that Germany will not agree to reforms unless it is con­fronted with a take-it-or-leave-it choice. A eurozone break-up would be a dis­aster for Germany. It would destroy the country’s export-led business model, and shrink its massive stock of external assets.“
    – Stelter: Im Klartext setzt Münchau auf eine erfolg­reiche Erpressung. Doch wozu? Selbst wenn wir eine Trans­fer­union gründen, bringt sie nichts. Oder würde Frank­reich für Deutschland bezahlen? (Anmeldung erfor­derlich): „Eurozone downturn and lack of reform presage exis­tential crisis“, 22. April 2018

Dr. Daniel Stelter —